Louth constituency profile: Sinn Féin may get two seats in five-seater with only one Government TD and three retirees

Outgoing TDs: Fergus O’Dowd (FG-retiring), Ged Nash (Lab), Imelda Munster (SF-retiring), Peter Fitzpatrick (Ind-retiring), Ruairí Ó Murchú (SF)
Who are the candidates running in the Louth constituency?
Louth returning officer website
A five-seater with only one Government TD and three retirees. Fianna Fáil will be eager to regain a seat that they had held since 1927 – but lost in 2020. The party is running two candidates – Erin McGreehan, based in the Cooley peninsula, and “celebrity candidate” journalist Alison Comyn out of Drogheda, where votes are fiercely loyal to people from the town.
Fine Gael will be seeking to move their front-runner seat from Fergus O’Dowd’s Drogheda base to McGahon’s in Dundalk and should succeed. His running mate in the southern half of the county, Paula Butterly, may suffer from not being from Drogheda – which could benefit Comyn.
With O’Dowd and Sinn Féin’s Imelda Munster not running, Ged Nash is the only incumbent running in Drogheda, bolstering his chances of a seat. Sinn Féin will expect to defend Ruairí Ó Murchú’s Dundalk base and see Joanna Byrne, who is chair of Drogheda United, step into Munster’s old seat based in the town. The party has had a seat here since 2002 and two since 2016. If the party struggles to hold both seats, it will tell a tale of wider troubles. The addition of a third Sinn Féin candidate based in the Cooley peninsula will probably bring down Ó Murchu’s vote, but it should make its way back to him – but any McGreehan votes lost on Cooley to Watters may not return her way.
An independent candidate could benefit from Peter Fitzpatrick’s retirement – seven of 29 county council seats are filled by independents – with former Fine Gaeler Kevin Callan tipped. Maeve Yore has yet to declare but could be a rogue wave in Dundalk. Boundary changes and the loss of population in the south may make it more likely a third seat comes from the northern end of the county. Kelly, Nigel Farage’s former spindoctor, is running, but given four Irish Freedom Party candidates could muster only 1,800 first-preference votes in the local elections, it is hard to see him making the breakthrough – although he may improve on the local election outing.
The smallest county in Ireland – but, outside of Dublin, one of the most densely populated – Louth is dominated by the two large commuter towns of Dundalk in the northern half of the county and Drogheda in the south.
Possible outcome: Fine Gael (1), Fianna Fáil (1), Sinn Féin (2), Labour (1)